Tri-Nations do or die!

August 25, 2005

Well, it comes down to this:

If the New Zealand All Blacks defeat South Africa at the House of Pain in Dunedin this Saturday, then they’re still in with a fighting chance to raise the silverware in this years’ Tri-Nations Championship.

But if the Springboks win, then South Africa will have swept the series, shocked everybody by repeating as champions, and will have taken out the All Blacks three test matches in a row. The last time South Africans could brag about that was nearly 30 years ago.

It’ll also make next weeks’ All Blacks-Wallabies finale an anti-climactic funeral procession. But that's a whole 'nother bridge to cross and a whole 'nother ball game . . .

If the biggest shock to the All Blacks title chances came two weeks ago with the broken leg of flyhalf Dan Carter, then the elevation of Leon MacDonald to fill his boots is surely New Zealand’s biggest head-scratcher.

MacDonald has played virtually no time at the position at any level, let alone the very highest level of elite international championship test matches. Nor has the Cantabrian much experience as a frontline goalkicker.

Perhaps memories are short in New Zealand. It was said that the biggest lesson of their disastrous 2003 World Cup campaign was that selectors needed to pick specialists and not play people out of position and hand them goalkicking duties in must-win test matches. That’s what the All Blacks did against the Wallabies in the 2003 RWC semifinal – again, coincidentally enough, with the selection of MacDonald playing out of position and handed the kicking tee in that debacle – and it cost coach John Mitchell his job.

MacDonald is a thoroughly professional rugby back however, and I suspect he'll go well. And maybe new coach Graham Henry believes anybody can play flyhalf these days, it doesn't matter who you slot in, and 50% goalkicking rate is acceptable at the top echelon of international rugby. But it makes you question the lack of foresight of Henry and his fellow selectors.

It's one thing when you're a touring team and have to start someone out of position in a desperate pinch; it seems remarkable that it has to be this way when you have the advantage of playing at home with two weeks preparation. As an unabashed AB fan, I'm crossing my fingers and expecting MacDonald to rise to the occasion, but I sure as hell hope this doesn't become a habit.

Look at it this way: if a prop went down, I would expect Henry to go look at other S12 and NPC props, and not select, say, locks and flankers to fill the position. It’s painfully curious why MacDonald wasn't penciled in at No. 10 and made the frontline goalkicker earlier this season for the Maori-Lions game, nor the AB-Lions 3rd test, since he dressed for both those huge games. One might have thought those were good opportunities to see what he offered in the position for a rainy day. Well, Saturday's test certainly qualifies, and god forbid, ABs fans are crossing their fingers and throwing salt over their shoulders hoping against logic that Henry hasn't foolishly wasted a pair of perfect opportunities. If Leon MacDonald is the best replacement NZ has, then perhaps the Wallabies needn't feel so bad about lack of depth in their test squad.

MacDonald’s selection now places added pressure on scrumhalf Piri Weepu – himself an injury replacement who only three months ago was #3 in the ABs depth chart at his position – as well as 2nd-five Aaron Mauger, who will now be burdened with the tactical responsibilities.

If it all seems a bit half-arsed, take nothing for granted, these old warriors will be hammering each other, and New Zealand will be doing everything to tilt the balance of power their way at home. This game has everything to play for, there are no excuses. Not even for the referee!

Rugby Planet has an excellent preview with starting XVs and fearless predictions. Me, I’ll just shut up and gnaw my fingernails for a few days.

In other news...

Rupeni Caucaunibuca’s no-shows have gotten him embroiled in hot water, and the world’s most exciting rugby player has been suspended from all international rugby for the next year. The proverbial million-dollar body with the 5-cent brain.